2 January 1905, Port Arthur, at the tip of Manchuria. The war began here eleven months ago with a Japanese night attack on Russian ships at anchor. After a siege that cost Japan nearly 60,000 casualties, the fortress surrenders. Russia's Baltic Fleet is still sailing round the world to save it.
Why then
In 1895 Japan won this harbour from China, and Russia, France and Germany made it give it back. Three years later Russia leased it for itself and ran a railway down to it. Japan spent a decade preparing to stop Russia taking Korea as well.
What they wanted
Tokyo is after Korea, this harbour and the railway, written into a treaty. St. Petersburg wants a peace that does not look like a beating. The crowds in Tokyo expect to be paid for their dead.
What changed
In May the Baltic Fleet is destroyed at Tsushima. In September, at Portsmouth, New Hampshire, Russia gives Japan the harbour, the railway south of it, half of Sakhalin and a free hand in Korea, but no money. Tokyo riots. Across Asia, nationalists take note.
Still argued
A decisive victory, or a peace so thin it taught Japan's army that diplomats lose what soldiers win? That lesson mattered more in the 1930s than the battle did.